Forex Today; What You Need To Know For November 8, 2019

November 8, 2019 by  
Filed under Featured, Trading in the Market

Contradicting reports about the state of US-Sino talks have been whipsawing markets. The world’s largest economies are set to include a rollback of tariffs in the phases of the trade agreement. However fierce internal opposition is holding progress back. Among White House advisers, Larry Kudlow has expressed optimism and readiness for concessions, while Peter Navarro has said that nothing has been agreed, and everything depends on President Donald Trump. Beyond the trade talk the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for November is set to show a small improvement, confirming the strength of the consumer. As we head into the Chrismas shoppingbseason we expect this to hold true.

Chinese trade balance figures have shown a smaller than expected drop in exports.

GBP/USD is struggling around 1.28 after the Bank of England painted a more gloomy picture of the local and global economies. Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate cut.  This is actually a realistic look at the whole situation.

The European Commission’s new forecasts have included a downgrade of GDP forecasts from 1.2% to 1.1% this year and from 1.4% to 1.2% in 2020. German trade balance and French industrial output are eyed today. This data will be negative ans reinforce earlier data of a German recession.

AUD/USD has been losing ground after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Summary of Monetary Policy has shown that the bank is reluctant to raise rates even if the global economy picks up.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For November, 4, 2019

November 4, 2019 by  
Filed under Featured, Forex Tips, Trading in the Market

The dollar is under pressure today. The dollar index fell off of Friday’s 3 month high of 97.15. Things looked good Friday after the jobs report showed that things were not shrinking as fast as anticipated. However, later the Institute of Suppy Management reported contraction in the manufacturing sector for the 3rd consecutive month.

The dollar is also underpressure as it and the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar all have room to drop interest rates. The volitility will be minimal in all major currencies due to minimal interest rate differentials. The 4 with room to cut will be the weakest as other major currencies are seen as stable.

The euro was lower as traders wait for the new Ew ECB President Legarde to gove her first speech. She has already stated, as former ECB President Draghi did, a disappointment in Germany and the Neatherlands for not investing their surpluses into growth for the whole Union. This kind of situation will be the downfall of the EU at somepoint. Taking those controls away from memebers is the only way the social engineering crowd will be able to do what they want. Sadly it means the countries in the EU have to give up their sovereignty.

The pound held steady as there is an assumptuon that there will not be a hard Brexit now. The UK central bank hold policy meetings this week, as does the Australian central bank. Both are expected to keep things steady. There is concern that the UK central bankers will want to ease off their tightening stance headed into the election but it is just a concern.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For October 30, 2019

October 30, 2019 by  
Filed under Featured, Forex Tips, Trading in the Market

Chile, US GDP, FMOC interest rate decision, and trade all are in play today.

Chile erupted in protest last Friday over a fare hike that saw high school students come out in mass. This continued into yesterday as changes were made in the cabinet but also saw the military in the streets. 18 people killed, over 1000 shot, as people are fed up with 30 years of oppression. We will continue to watch these events and their affect on the markets.

US GDP will be announced today and then the US Federal Reserve open market committee will announce an expected change in interest rates. Economic news recently has been positive so wr are slightly concerned that they already priced in cut may not come this time. That would put a wrench in the markets.

Thinks could be interesting today so keep your eyes and ears open. Watch the Dollar index for a general fight to safety today as well as pressure on the Pound as there is concern that the election will not work in Bori’s favor.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For October 29, 2019

October 29, 2019 by  
Filed under Featured, Trading in the Market

The UK’s Labor Party just announced they will go along with a December elections. This comes after PM Boris Johnson acknowledged that Brexit will not happen by October 31. We will now see the EU pass an extention into January of next year.

US President Donald Trump stated yesterday that the trade deal with China is all but complete. This sent US sticks higher. Once things are finally approved economies should start to stabilize a bit. World wide recession fears are still a real thing and time will tell.

We have to wonder, as we mentioned last week, if currecy markets will start to become stagnant.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For October 28, 2019

October 28, 2019 by  
Filed under Featured, Trading in the Market

Its a quiet start to a week where everyone is looking towards Wednesday. On Wednesday we will get the US GDP numbers and then the FMOC decision on interest rates. As we stated last week, we think the market has already priced in a rate cut.

On Friday the office of the US Trade Representative announced that the US and China are nearing a Phase One agreement on trade. This is extremely positive and should stay that way. Although the US political situation will have to affect the markets at some point.

The Pound will continue to be under pressure as PM Boris Johnson continues fighting with Parliment. It would seem snap elections are on the horizon.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For October 24, 2019

October 24, 2019 by  
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Mario Draghi gets to be center stage for the last time as ECB president. He will oversee his last rate decision. Expectations are a speech about his legacy and a strong defense of the things he has done the past 8 years. Speculation of a doom and gloom outlook on the Euro Zone in his speech may bring some weekness to the Euro. The October EU purchasing manager index will be announced ahead of rate decision. This will provide some insite into the EU economy.

As the EU considers a delay to Brexit the pound should be somewhat stable. France is trying to excert pressure for a short term delay until November 15. This would be foolish and lead to another request for a delay. The EU will most likely agree to a delay until January 31 of next year. This will give the British government a chance to hold elections and form a new government. Hopefully this will be the last delay and we can get past this.

US Vice President Mike Pence will speak today and is expected to talk about China. Maybe we can gleem some insight into the trade negotiations. President Trump lifted sanctions of Turkey yesterday so this may play into Turkey’s rate decision. Though there is no reason that the USD/TYR will not continue to be volitle though. September Durable goods are do out today. They will give us an idea of what to expect with the GDP announcement next week. Weekly Unemployment and New Home Sales will also be watched.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For October 23, 2019

The Brexit drama continues stealing the headlines. The United Kingdoms Parliament voted in favor of Britain PM’s Johnson deal, however against the projected time frame to debate the bill. The Sterling fell as PM Johnson insisted on his stance of pull the United Kingdom out of the EU by October 31st.  A PM representative later said that Johnson’s next step would be having talks with EU leaders and asking them to not extend the date, though hinting he would be agreeable with a brief extension.

The EUR/USD combine fell for a second consecutive day, dragged lower by Brexit-related headlines. The absence of relevant information coming back from the US/ China talks left the combo range bound. Safe-haven assets appreciated before the end of the day, Wall Street closed in the red as mounting Brexit uncertainty triggered risk-off.

Crude oil costs edged higher, on reports that world organisation and its allies were considering whether or not to deepen fossil fuel production cuts at their next meeting in December because of worries regarding the dismal energy demand outlook in 2020.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For October 22, 2019

October 22, 2019 by  
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While the UK Parliament will be in the spotlight, trade headlines concerning the US and China as well as US politics could also get the markets attention. Plus the final results of Canadian election, Canadian Retail Sales and the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) Business Outlook Survey will along with the US Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and New Zealand trade numbers to decorate the macros.

China’s Vice Foreign Minister mad two statements yesterday, the first that China will not allow other countries to undermine their security and the second that they have acheived some progress on US trade talks. While the statements seem to be on two seperate subjects they are actually contradictory. US opposition to the current state of Hong Kong, Taiwan and the South China Sea all are goung to be talking points in trade negotiations. This may take a while to iron out. The Dollar will be in limbo until this is worked out.

The UK Parliament continues to play politics with the UK people. Everything is in limbo. This is all reminiscent of Churchill and Chamberlain. Its time to let the UK people go free and move forward with Brexit. We know the big money doea not want that because oppression fills bank accounts. But we forsee great things for the UK. A new trading block with North America, especially the US, as well as the growth of the UK financial sector all are great for the UK. It is time to go long the Pound and ride this out.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For October 21, 2019

October 21, 2019 by  
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GBP/USD dropped today toward 1.29 after a very eventful weekend. Parliament forced the government to ask for an extension to Article 50. Prime Minister Boris Johnson still continues trying passing all the relevant legislation this week. It is unclear if House Speaker John Bercow will allow another “Meaningful Vote” which failed on Saturday, but the vote on the Withdrawal Bill is set to be debated on Tuesday. While Johnson says he has the votes to pass his Brexit agreement, the opposition may try to add amendments, for a customs union or for a second referendum. EU Leaders will be watching and are ready to approve an extension if lawmakers fail to approve Brexit. The pound’s volatility is set to remain elevated.  This is just plain nuts.

The US Dollar is little changed today after falling on Friday. Richard Clarida, Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve has not pushed back against market pricing in a rate cut later this month. Some speculated that he quietly endorsed a rate reduction. Moreover, weak Retail Sales weighed on the dollar last week. The cut is already assumed and not going forward with it would. E a mistake. Especially with the overnight funding mess the Fed has been dealing with.

Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He said the US and China made concrete progress. In the meantime, China left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged. The world’s second-largest economy thus postpones monetary stimulus to 18 of its banks. If the Chinese government thought there was going to be more rhetoric they may have lowered the Prime Rate.

Incoming European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has put the blame for the global slowdown on US President Donald Trump’s trade wars. Of course she is not taking into account the general slow down of world economies. Of course it is much easier to assert blame than look in the mirror. Other reports suggest the ECB will leave refrain from introducing additional stimulus this year. Outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi presides over his last decision on Thursday. 

Canada holds Federal Elections today with a tight race between incumbent Justin Trudeau and contender Andrew Scheerin a battle for the top job. Markets will be content with both candidates if either gain an absolute majority. 

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For October 18, 2019

October 18, 2019 by  
Filed under Featured, Trading in the Market

Brexit remains front and center. As Prime Minister Boris Johnson is running around like a mad to get the votes to support his Brexit deal. The UK and the EU announced a deal on Thursday, sending pound higher. However, so much of the news about Parliments apparent rejection of the deal and with no announced plan about what happens in case parliament fails to pass it limited the pound’s gains. The House of Commons votes on the deal on Saturday and speculation about the vote is going to dominate trading.  An extension, a second referendum, elections, and also a hard Brexit are in cards.

The US Dollar remains on the back burner as the risk-on atmosphere remains. China GDP came in at 6% yearly in the third quarter. This was lower then expected and the worst since the 1990s. However, Industrial Production rose by 5.8% in September, largely above expectations and providing relief.  John Williams, President of the New York branch of the Federal Reserve, expressed optimism about the US economy and seemed reluctant to cut rates again later this month. Vice-Chair Richard Clarida speaks later today and will be the last Fed official to talk ahead of the October 30 decision. 

At some point we expect US politics to start to affect the dollar and maybe world markets. Slowing growth and possibly a US president that wants to raise US taxes along with an upheaval in employment as AI takes hold will be a disastrous receipe for the world economy. And everyone though negative interest rates were a problem.

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