Forex Today; What You Need To Know For November 7, 2019

November 7, 2019 by  
Filed under Forex Tips

Today the Bank of England has its policy meeting. This should be an anticlimactic event. Their hands are tied with a general election set for December 12. Short of them stating they are thinking of raising rates to hedge against possible inflation, this should be a non-event. All of this non-anticipation has lead to the pound being steady against the Euro.

Unlike the pound, the Euro is having its own issues. Based on current data, inclydingbtoday’s German Industrial Output, Germany will enter a recession next month. Since theybare theblargest economy inbthe Union this will spell trouble the whole block. All of this will put pressure on the Euro in the short and intermediate term.

On the US/China trade front we have word that both sides must remove imposed tariffs for a “phae one” trade deal to be completed. The Chinese have stated their willingness to talk about how this will happen. Meanwhile the White House has said that a meeting to sign an interim trade deal between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could be delayed until December. So we wait still.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For November 6, 2019

November 6, 2019 by  
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Markets seem to be taking a breather today as we wait for further confirmation of a US/China “Phase One” trade deal. Everything we are hearing and reading is pointing in that direction at least. We expect one or two more rounds of negative reports before it is all said done.

As we wait the US Dollar has stepped back a bit against other major currencies. This includes yen. The Chinese Yuan also has stepped back a bit.

We should see thhe dollar strengthen more as trade worries ease. All economic data is pointing towards US economic growth.

The UK pound isnundwr pressure and we expect this to continue through the election. So much uncertainty will create some trading opportunities.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For November 5, 2019

November 5, 2019 by  
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The UK service sector index went up .05 in October. Basically flat. This is the worst reading since 2009. New business fell fornthe 2nd month in a row. People and business in the UK are concerned about spending cash until Brexit is complete. This is a sign that there will be a recession before Brexit takes place.

The Bank of England is expected to keep rates the same. There has been talk of the Bank would be less willing in the future to ease. This would be foolish based on the reports we have seen about the UK and EU economies.

The dollar has held its own with new reports on US/China trafe that are very positive. The dollar was up against the safe-haven yen further strengthening the dollars position. At the same time the Yuan was up against the dollar, dipping below 7.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For November, 4, 2019

November 4, 2019 by  
Filed under Featured, Forex Tips, Trading in the Market

The dollar is under pressure today. The dollar index fell off of Friday’s 3 month high of 97.15. Things looked good Friday after the jobs report showed that things were not shrinking as fast as anticipated. However, later the Institute of Suppy Management reported contraction in the manufacturing sector for the 3rd consecutive month.

The dollar is also underpressure as it and the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar all have room to drop interest rates. The volitility will be minimal in all major currencies due to minimal interest rate differentials. The 4 with room to cut will be the weakest as other major currencies are seen as stable.

The euro was lower as traders wait for the new Ew ECB President Legarde to gove her first speech. She has already stated, as former ECB President Draghi did, a disappointment in Germany and the Neatherlands for not investing their surpluses into growth for the whole Union. This kind of situation will be the downfall of the EU at somepoint. Taking those controls away from memebers is the only way the social engineering crowd will be able to do what they want. Sadly it means the countries in the EU have to give up their sovereignty.

The pound held steady as there is an assumptuon that there will not be a hard Brexit now. The UK central bank hold policy meetings this week, as does the Australian central bank. Both are expected to keep things steady. There is concern that the UK central bankers will want to ease off their tightening stance headed into the election but it is just a concern.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For November 1, 2019

November 1, 2019 by  
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As we enter the 2nd to last month of the year we see the Dollar lower against major currencies. US employment data due out today shoyld be a mixed bag. We expect that the General Motors’ strike will drag these number’s lower.

The dollar also is lower because traders are assuming that thebworlds economies are bottoming out. This is based on lower economic numbers from Asia. This is also based on a recent Business Survey from Ciaxin/IHS Markit showed that output and new orders have been increasing.

The pound and Euro were both up against the Dollar. The pound has gone as far as it will for now due to the election next month. Trade talk between the US and UK may come into focus. US President Trump said he does not see a trade deal getting done with the UK based on the Brexit deal the UK has made with the EU. This is probably posturing and Trump has a new thing to talk about.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For October 31, 2019

October 31, 2019 by  
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Happy Halloween

In a very anit climactic announcement the US FMOC announced a .25% rate cut in its over night lending rate. While this was widely expected and already priced into the market, the words in the announcement caused alarm and weaked the dollar accross the board. The US Fed did not indicate continued easing which alarmed traders. Most traders are expecting a worldwide recession soon. This change in the wording regarding any future rate cuts gave the impression the the US Fed was out of touch with the markets and world events.

In addition to the Fed news, the dollar was also under on US/China trade news. The Dillar was lower against the safe-haven yen by the news that Chile has withdrawn as host of an APEC summit in November where the U.S. and China had been expected to take major steps towards resolving their protracted trade war. The Chinese also stated that they did not see a negociated settlement coming yet. All of this was very disappointing after all of the talk from US President Trump.

The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy steady on Thursday. However, they did introduced new forward guidance to more clearly signal the future chance of a rate cut. This is underlining its concern over global economic risks.

The British Pound was higher on the news Parliment agreed to General Elections in December.

We look at what is happening in Chile with a heavy heart. We hope for the safety of all protestors and pray their goverment will listen instead of shoot.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For October 30, 2019

October 30, 2019 by  
Filed under Featured, Forex Tips, Trading in the Market

Chile, US GDP, FMOC interest rate decision, and trade all are in play today.

Chile erupted in protest last Friday over a fare hike that saw high school students come out in mass. This continued into yesterday as changes were made in the cabinet but also saw the military in the streets. 18 people killed, over 1000 shot, as people are fed up with 30 years of oppression. We will continue to watch these events and their affect on the markets.

US GDP will be announced today and then the US Federal Reserve open market committee will announce an expected change in interest rates. Economic news recently has been positive so wr are slightly concerned that they already priced in cut may not come this time. That would put a wrench in the markets.

Thinks could be interesting today so keep your eyes and ears open. Watch the Dollar index for a general fight to safety today as well as pressure on the Pound as there is concern that the election will not work in Bori’s favor.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For October 25, 2019

October 25, 2019 by  
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Boring. That is the only word to describe what can happen going forward. The Pound may be the only currency to see any pressure over the coming days. Today the EU will decide on giving Britain and extension for Brexit. The assumption is that they will extend until January 31, 2020. We don’t think France’s push for November 15th of this year found much support. Prime Minister Johnson is looking for a November general election so pump up the rehtoric. We can already predict a great deal of talking and the same nonsense come the January dead line.

The EU decided to leave rates alone. Of course they “left the door open” for further cuts. Japan is probably going to do the same due to the US/China trade war. The US Federal Reserve will most likely cut rates next week. That has already been priced into the market, so we get boring. Any economic data due out today is minor and will be over thought by traders looking for something to trade on.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For October 22, 2019

October 22, 2019 by  
Filed under Featured, Forex Tips, Trading in the Market

While the UK Parliament will be in the spotlight, trade headlines concerning the US and China as well as US politics could also get the markets attention. Plus the final results of Canadian election, Canadian Retail Sales and the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) Business Outlook Survey will along with the US Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and New Zealand trade numbers to decorate the macros.

China’s Vice Foreign Minister mad two statements yesterday, the first that China will not allow other countries to undermine their security and the second that they have acheived some progress on US trade talks. While the statements seem to be on two seperate subjects they are actually contradictory. US opposition to the current state of Hong Kong, Taiwan and the South China Sea all are goung to be talking points in trade negotiations. This may take a while to iron out. The Dollar will be in limbo until this is worked out.

The UK Parliament continues to play politics with the UK people. Everything is in limbo. This is all reminiscent of Churchill and Chamberlain. Its time to let the UK people go free and move forward with Brexit. We know the big money doea not want that because oppression fills bank accounts. But we forsee great things for the UK. A new trading block with North America, especially the US, as well as the growth of the UK financial sector all are great for the UK. It is time to go long the Pound and ride this out.

Forex Today; What You Need To Know For October 21, 2019

October 21, 2019 by  
Filed under Featured, Forex Tips, Trading in the Market

GBP/USD dropped today toward 1.29 after a very eventful weekend. Parliament forced the government to ask for an extension to Article 50. Prime Minister Boris Johnson still continues trying passing all the relevant legislation this week. It is unclear if House Speaker John Bercow will allow another “Meaningful Vote” which failed on Saturday, but the vote on the Withdrawal Bill is set to be debated on Tuesday. While Johnson says he has the votes to pass his Brexit agreement, the opposition may try to add amendments, for a customs union or for a second referendum. EU Leaders will be watching and are ready to approve an extension if lawmakers fail to approve Brexit. The pound’s volatility is set to remain elevated.  This is just plain nuts.

The US Dollar is little changed today after falling on Friday. Richard Clarida, Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve has not pushed back against market pricing in a rate cut later this month. Some speculated that he quietly endorsed a rate reduction. Moreover, weak Retail Sales weighed on the dollar last week. The cut is already assumed and not going forward with it would. E a mistake. Especially with the overnight funding mess the Fed has been dealing with.

Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He said the US and China made concrete progress. In the meantime, China left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged. The world’s second-largest economy thus postpones monetary stimulus to 18 of its banks. If the Chinese government thought there was going to be more rhetoric they may have lowered the Prime Rate.

Incoming European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has put the blame for the global slowdown on US President Donald Trump’s trade wars. Of course she is not taking into account the general slow down of world economies. Of course it is much easier to assert blame than look in the mirror. Other reports suggest the ECB will leave refrain from introducing additional stimulus this year. Outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi presides over his last decision on Thursday. 

Canada holds Federal Elections today with a tight race between incumbent Justin Trudeau and contender Andrew Scheerin a battle for the top job. Markets will be content with both candidates if either gain an absolute majority. 

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